Research and dates
We use primary company and public-agency sources. Source links appear beside the material they support. Reviewed means we checked the page for this edition on 7 November 2026. A dated announcement describes information at publication, and plans remain subject to change.
Cargo model
Purchase price per barrel = benchmark + differential. Pre-finance cargo cost = purchase price × barrels + freight + insurance/other costs + delay days × delay cost per day. Financing = pre-finance cargo cost × annual rate / 100 × (voyage days + delay days) / 365. Delivered cost per barrel = (pre-finance cargo cost + financing) / barrels. Financing applies to the whole assumed cost for the whole stated period.
Inventory model
Usable starting stock = gross stock − inaccessible stock. Event inflow = normal inflow × (1 − reduction / 100). Daily net draw = withdrawal − event inflow. Projected end stock = usable starting stock − daily net draw × interruption days. Time to reserve = (usable stock − minimum reserve) / net draw when the net draw is positive and the reserve is initially exceeded. An initial reserve shortfall is reported immediately. A nonpositive draw from an adequate initial reserve does not reach the reserve under these constant assumptions. Days of cover with zero inflow = usable stock / daily withdrawal.
Refinery model
Weighted product value = sum of each product share / 100 × its price. Contribution per feed barrel = weighted product value − crude purchase − variable processing cost. Shares must sum to 100%, within 0.001 percentage points for input rounding. Real output volumes can differ from feed volume. This exercise deliberately uses a volume-neutral fictional mix.
Results and records
Calculations use unrounded inputs and display rounded results. Changing an input invalidates the previous download until the scenario is run again. Each plain-text export includes the original inputs, result and model boundary. A record is an aid to discussion, dependent on the assumptions entered.
Editorial imagery
The homepage image was generated for this project and depicts a fictional marine oil terminal. It is used as an editorial illustration.